Discussing the Strehler-Mildvan model of mortality

نویسنده

  • Maxim Finkelstein
چکیده

BACKGROUND Half a century ago, Strehler and Mildvan (1960) published a seminal paper that, based on certain assumptions (postulates), theoretically ‘justified’ the Gompertz law of mortality. OBJECTIVE We intend to discuss the assumptions and limitations of the original Strehler-Mildvan model (as well as of the Strehler-Mildvan correlation), and to consider some modifications and departures from this model. METHODS We use the framework of stochastic point processes for analyzing the original StrehlerMildvan model. We also suggest using the ‘lifesaving approach’ to describe the departure from rectangularization due to the shifts in the survival curves for human mortality that were observed in the second half of the previous century. RESULTS We show that the Strehler-Mildvan model can be justified only under the additional assumption that the process of shocks (demands for energy) follows the Poisson pattern. We also suggest a modification that accounts for the oldest-old mortality plateau. 1 Department of Mathematical Statistics, University of the Free State, South Africa. Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany. E-mail: [email protected]. Finkelstein: Discussing the Strehler-Mildvan model of mortality

برای دانلود رایگان متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

Aging: damage accumulation versus increasing mortality rate.

If aging is understood as some process of damage accumulation, it does not necessarily lead to increasing mortality rate. Within the framework of a suggested generalization of the Strehler-Mildwan (1960) [B.L. Strehler, A.S. Mildvan (1960). General theory of mortality and aging, Science, 132, 14] model, we show that even for models with monotonically increasing degradation, the mortality rate c...

متن کامل

Vitality heterogeneity in the Strehler-Mildvan theory of mortality.

In this paper the Strehler-Mildvan theory of mortality and aging is generalised to cover heterogeneity effects in the population. The theory is based on the concept of environmental shocks that cause death of an individual when exceeding its vitality. Heterogeneity is introduced via the value of the vitality of an individual at birth. The main result of the paper is an expression for the observ...

متن کامل

Heterogeneity in the Strehler-Mildvan general theory of mortality and aging.

This study examines and further develops the classic Strehler-Mildvan (SM) general theory of mortality and aging. Three predictions from the SM theory are tested by examining the age dependence of mortality patterns for 42 countries (including developed and developing countries) over the period 1955-2003. By applying finite mixture regression models, principal component analysis, and random-eff...

متن کامل

Properties of a Stochastic Model for Life Table Data: Exploring Life Expectancy Limits

In this paper we explore the life expectancy limits by based on the stochastic modeling of mortality and applying the first exit or hitting time theory of a stochastic process. The main assumption is that the health state or the “vitality”, according to Strehler and Mildvan, of an individual is a stochastic variable and thus it was introduced and applied a first exit time density function to mo...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

عنوان ژورنال:

دوره   شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 2012